The North West Derby — Liverpool hunt the title, United fight for pride at Anfield
Liverpool have won by 2+ goals in 8 of 17 home league games. United have conceded 2+ in 6 of their last 8 away. This has blowout potential.
| Market | Liverpool | Draw | Man United |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Full Time | 1.40 | 4.80 | 7.50 |
| Market | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
| Goals | 1.65 | 2.25 | |
| Market | BTTS Yes | BTTS No | |
| Both Score | 1.80 | 2.00 |
Recent results: W 3-1 vs West Ham (H), W 2-0 vs Wolves (A), W 4-1 vs Brentford (H), W 1-0 vs Everton (A), L 0-1 vs Chelsea (A), W 3-0 vs Leicester (H)
Recent results: L 0-2 vs Newcastle (A), D 1-1 vs Burnley (H), L 1-3 vs Arsenal (A), W 2-0 vs Sheffield Utd (H), D 0-0 vs Crystal Palace (A), L 0-1 vs Spurs (H)
| Stat | Liverpool | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| League Position | 1st | 14th |
| Goals/Match | 2.35 | 1.15 |
| Goals Conceded/Match | 0.78 | 1.65 |
| Possession Avg | 58% | 49% |
| Shots on Target/Match | 6.8 | 3.9 |
| Corners/Match | 7.2 | 4.5 |
| Clean Sheet % | 47% | 18% |
| xG Created/Match | 2.10 | 1.05 |
| xG Conceded/Match | 0.85 | 1.75 |
| Competition | Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | Jan 2026 | Liverpool | 2-0 |
| FA Cup | Mar 2025 | Manchester United | 2-1 (AET) |
| Premier League | Sep 2025 | Liverpool | 2-1 |
| Premier League | Apr 2025 | Liverpool | 3-1 |
| Premier League | Dec 2024 | Draw | 0-0 |
Last 5 meetings: Liverpool 3W, Manchester United 1W, 1 Draw. Liverpool have scored 2+ goals in 4 of the last 5 meetings. United's last league win at Anfield was January 2018.
Liverpool have won by 2+ goals in 8 of 17 home matches. United's away form has collapsed — conceding 2+ in 6 of their last 8 on the road. The -1.5 AH at 1.85 captures the gap in class.
1.85Over 2.5 has hit in 10 of Liverpool's 17 home games and 7 of United's last 10 away. Liverpool are playing with attacking freedom at home, and United's defensive fragility makes goals likely.
1.65Liverpool have kept 8 clean sheets at Anfield. United have failed to score in 5 of their 17 away games. A comfortable home win with a clean sheet is very plausible at 2.10.
2.10The North West Derby is always feisty. The reverse fixture had 6 cards. 4 of the last 5 meetings produced 5+ cards. Expect a fiery, physical contest. Over 4.5 at 1.70.
1.70Salah has 18 league goals this season, with 10 at Anfield. He's scored in 3 of his last 4 home appearances. Against United's leaky defence, he's the most likely scorer at 1.75.
1.75Liverpool have scored 2+ goals in 12 of 17 home league matches. At 1.40, this is a reliable anchor leg for accumulators with a very high hit rate.
1.40For Manchester United away matches at Anfield, Liverpool -1.5 AH at 1.85 represents approximately 54% implied probability. We recommend 1-2% of your bankroll on this pick. For the Over 2.5 goals market at 1.65 (61% implied), a 1-1.5% stake is appropriate. Avoid temptation to go heavy on short-price Liverpool straight win at 1.40 — the value is in the handicap markets.
Liverpool are strong favorites at 1.40 odds to win at Anfield. Manchester United are at 7.50 for the away win, with the draw at 4.80. Liverpool's dominant home record and United's poor away form make the Reds clear favorites.
Liverpool -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.85 offers strong value. Liverpool have won by 2+ goals in 8 of 17 home league games, while United have conceded 2+ in 6 of their last 8 away matches.
Kick-off is at 16:30 BST (15:30 UTC) on Sunday, May 3, 2026, at Anfield, Liverpool.
The expected goals (xG) for this match is approximately 2.8-3.2. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.65 and has landed in 10 of Liverpool's 17 home games and 7 of United's last 10 away matches.
In the last 5 Premier League meetings at Anfield, Liverpool have won 3, drawn 1, and lost 1. Liverpool have scored 2+ goals in 4 of those 5 meetings. United's last league win at Anfield was in 2018.