8 of the last 10 North London Derbies at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium have seen 3+ goals. This fixture averages 3.4 goals per game historically. Both teams approach derbies with aggressive attacking setups — Spurs push high at home to silence the away end, while Arsenal's forward line thrives on transition opportunities. With both sides needing points for their respective European and top-four ambitions, expect an open, high-tempo contest.
The North London Derby returns to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with both clubs chasing crucial points. Arsenal arrive as the form side, sitting comfortably in the top four with their defensive structure and clinical counter-attacking proving effective away from home. Tottenham, however, historically raise their level for this fixture regardless of league position — the atmosphere in the stadium during a NLD is unlike any other Premier League match.
Tottenham's home record this season has been inconsistent against top-six opposition, but derbies operate on a different emotional frequency. The home crowd creates an intense atmosphere that has led to some of the most dramatic encounters in Premier League history. Expect Ange Postecoglou's side to come out with aggressive pressing and high energy in the opening 20 minutes.
Arsenal's tactical discipline under Mikel Arteta has been their defining strength. Their ability to control possession, frustrate opponents, and strike on the counter makes them particularly effective in hostile away environments. The Gunners have won on their last two visits to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and another victory here would be a significant statement in the race for Champions League qualification.
The crucial duel will be in midfield — Tottenham's desire to play expansive, progressive football will clash with Arsenal's structured pressing and counter-pressing. If Arsenal can win the ball high up the pitch, they have the pace in wide areas to punish Tottenham's high defensive line. If Spurs can play through the press, they'll create numerical advantages in the final third.
| Market | Bet365 | Betano | 22Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Win | 3.80 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.55 | 3.65 |
| Arsenal Win | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.88 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.65 | 1.70 | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.15 | 2.10 | 2.12 |
| BTTS Yes | 1.60 | 1.62 | 1.58 |
| BTTS No | 2.25 | 2.20 | 2.28 |
3W 1D 1L · 7 goals scored · 4 conceded
4W 1D 0L · 9 goals scored · 2 conceded
| Stat | Tottenham | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| League Position | 8th | 2nd |
| Avg Goals Scored/Match | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Avg Goals Conceded/Match | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Home/Away Win Rate | 56% | 75% |
| Clean Sheet Rate | 31% | 50% |
| BTTS Rate (Home/Away) | 62% | 56% |
| Avg Corners/Match | 5.1 | 6.3 |
| Derby Record (Last 5 NLD) | 1W 1D 3L | 3W 1D 1L |
The last 12 North London Derbies in all competitions:
| Result | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Win | 2-1 | Premier League (A) |
| Arsenal Win | 1-0 | Premier League (H) |
| Tottenham Win | 3-2 | Premier League (H) |
| Draw | 2-2 | Premier League (A) |
| Arsenal Win | 2-0 | FA Cup |
| Arsenal Win | 3-1 | Premier League (H) |
Arsenal have won 5 of the last 7 NLD meetings. Tottenham's last home win was a 3-2 thriller. Average goals per NLD: 3.4.
North London Derbies are emotionally charged — both teams often exceed expected performance levels. Reduce stakes to 2-3% of bankroll (not your standard 5%). The Over 2.5 Goals market at 1.65 offers the best risk-reward ratio based on historical data. Use our Kelly Criterion Calculator to find your optimal stake, and always follow your bankroll management plan.