🧮 Staking Plan Calculator

A staking plan determines how much of your bankroll to risk on each bet. The right plan protects your capital during losing streaks and maximizes growth during winning periods. Here are the four most common strategies:

1. Flat Staking — The Simplest & Safest

You stake a fixed amount on every bet regardless of odds, confidence, or bankroll changes. Typically 1-3% of your starting bankroll.

Pros	Cons
Easy to follow	Doesn't adjust for edge size
Limited downside risk	Doesn't compound growth on winning streaks
Best for beginners	Same stake on 1.50 and 5.00 odds

Formula: Stake = Flat % × Bankroll
Example: 2% of $1,000 = $20 per bet, every bet

2. Percentage Staking — Adapts With Your Bankroll

You stake a fixed percentage of your current bankroll, recalculated before each bet. As your bankroll grows, stakes grow; as it shrinks, stakes shrink.

Pros	Cons
Compounds winning streaks	Stakes can become very large after long winning runs
Automatically de-risks during losing streaks	Harder to predict absolute profit/loss
Never risks entire bankroll	Recovery from deep losing streaks is slow

Formula: Stake = Percentage × Current Bankroll
Example: 2% of $1,200 (after growth) = $24 per bet

3. Kelly Criterion — Mathematically Optimal Growth

The Kelly Criterion calculates the mathematically optimal stake based on your edge (the difference between true probability and implied probability). It maximizes the long-term growth rate of your bankroll.

Pros	Cons
Mathematically optimal growth rate	Requires accurate probability estimation
Accounts for odds AND edge	Full Kelly leads to large swings
Zero stake when no edge exists	Overestimating edge = over-staking = risk of ruin

Formula: Stake = (p × o - 1) / (o - 1) × Bankroll
where p = your estimated probability, o = decimal odds
Example: Edge = (0.55 × 2.10) - 1 = 0.155 → Kelly = 0.155 / 1.10 = 14.1% = $141

4. Labouchere System — Structured Chase

Write down a sequence of numbers. Stake the sum of the first and last numbers in your sequence. On a win, remove those numbers. On a loss, add the lost stake to the end. The goal is to eliminate all numbers.

Pros	Cons
Structured and methodical	Long losing streaks require very large stakes
Clear profit target (sum of sequence)	Not suitable for long-odds bets
Gambling psychology: clear "finish line"	Can exceed bankroll if sequence grows too long

Base unit: Bankroll ÷ sum of sequence × base multiplier
Example: Sequence [1,2,3,4,5] = $15 target. Base unit = $1,000 / (1+2+3+4+5) × 3 ≈ $200 per unit
First bet = (1+5) × $200 = $1,200... adjust sequence to bankroll size

Feature	Flat	Percentage	Kelly	Labouchere
Complexity	⭐ Easy	⭐ Easy	⭐⭐⭐ Hard	⭐⭐ Medium
Risk Level	Low	Medium	High (full) / Medium (half)	High
Best For	Beginners	Intermediate	Sharp bettors with edge	Even-money bettors
Requires Edge Est.	No	No	Yes (critical)	No
Compounding	No	Yes	Yes	No (fixed target)
Risk of Ruin	Very Low	Low	High (full), Low (quarter)	Medium-High
Emotional Discipline	Easy	Easy	Hard (stakes vary widely)	Hard (chase temptation)

1. Betting too much per stake: 5%+ per bet leads to rapid bankroll depletion. Most pros stay at 1-3%.
2. Chasing losses with bigger stakes: Increasing stakes after losses is the #1 way to go broke. Stick to your plan.
3. Overestimating your edge for Kelly: If your probability estimate is wrong, Kelly will over-stake aggressively. Use half or quarter Kelly.
4. Not recalculating percentage stakes: Percentage staking only works if you recalculate before every bet. Stale bankroll figures lead to over-staking.
5. Mixing staking strategies: Pick one plan and stick with it. Switching mid-stream means neither plan gets a fair test.

For a deeper guide on combining staking strategies with bankroll management, see our Bankroll Management Guide.