The Derby della Capitale — Rome's fiercest rivalry. Bragging rights, pride, and Serie A points on the line.
7 of the last 10 Derby della Capitale meetings went Under 2.5. Derby nerves, tactical fouling, and safety-first football — this is a classic low-scoring derby.
| Market | Roma | Draw | Lazio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Full Time | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Market | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
| Goals | 2.15 | 1.75 | |
| Market | BTTS Yes | BTTS No | |
| Both Score | 1.85 | 1.95 |
Recent results: W 2-0 vs Monza (H), D 0-0 vs Juventus (A), W 1-0 vs Empoli (H), W 3-1 vs Parma (A), D 1-1 vs Fiorentina (H), L 0-1 vsNapoli (A)
Recent results: D 1-1 vs Torino (H), L 0-2 vs AC Milan (A), W 2-1 vs Sassuolo (H), D 0-0 vs Bologna (A), W 3-0 vs Cagliari (H), L 1-2 vs Atalanta (A)
| Stat | Roma | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| League Position | 7th | 9th |
| Goals/Match | 1.47 | 1.30 |
| Goals Conceded/Match | 1.12 | 1.38 |
| Possession Avg | 53% | 50% |
| Shots on Target/Match | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| Corners/Match | 5.6 | 5.1 |
| Clean Sheet % | 35% | 24% |
| xG Created/Match | 1.50 | 1.15 |
| xG Conceded/Match | 1.10 | 1.35 |
| Competition | Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | Nov 2025 | Draw | 0-0 |
| Coppa Italia | Feb 2025 | Lazio | 1-0 |
| Serie A | Apr 2025 | Roma | 1-0 |
| Serie A | Nov 2024 | Lazio | 2-1 |
| Coppa Italia | Jan 2024 | Roma | 1-0 |
Last 5 meetings: Roma 2W, Lazio 2W, 1 Draw. All 5 meetings went Under 2.5 goals. 3 of 5 were decided by a single goal. The Derby della Capitale is consistently cagey and low-scoring.
7 of the last 10 Derby della Capitale meetings went Under 2.5. Roma average 1.41 home goals, Lazio average 1.06 away. Derby football means tactical discipline, fouling, and few clear chances. At 1.75 this is outstanding value.
1.75Roma are unbeaten in 14 of 17 home matches and have won 10. Lazio have lost 8 of 17 away. Roma DNB at 1.55 protects against the draw while capturing Roma's home advantage.
1.55Rome derbies are always heated. The last 5 meetings averaged 5.8 cards. Expect tactical fouls, time-wasting, and referee intervention. Over 4.5 cards at 1.65 is a reliable angle.
1.65Dybala has 9 league goals this season with 6 at the Olimpico. He thrives in big matches and has scored in 2 of the last 3 Rome derbies. At 2.40 he offers good value as the match's most creative talent.
2.40BTTS No has hit in 6 of the last 10 derby meetings. At least one team fails to score in these tight, nervous affairs. BTTS No at 1.95 is a solid complement to the Under 2.5 pick.
1.95For the bold: 4 of the last 5 meetings went Under 1.5 goals. At 3.10, this is a speculative but historically-backed play. These derbies are often decided by a single moment of quality.
3.10Derby matches carry extra volatility despite historical trends. For Under 2.5 at 1.75 (57% implied, 70% historical hit rate), we recommend 1-1.5% of your bankroll. For Roma DNB at 1.55 (64% implied), a more conservative 0.75-1% stake — Lazio are capable of springing surprises. Avoid going heavy on any single derby market. Spread value across 2-3 selections rather than concentrating on one outcome.
Roma are slight favorites at 2.20 odds, with Lazio at 3.20 and the draw at 3.30. Roma's strong home form gives them the edge, but derby matches are notoriously unpredictable — Lazio cannot be discounted.
Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 is the standout value pick. The Derby della Capitale has gone Under 2.5 in 7 of the last 10 meetings. Both teams tend to prioritise not losing over winning, producing tactical, low-scoring contests.
Kick-off is at 18:00 CET (17:00 UK time) on Sunday, May 4, 2026, at the Stadio Olimpico, Rome.
The expected goals (xG) for this match is approximately 2.0-2.3 — one of the lowest of the weekend. Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 has hit in 7 of the last 10 derby meetings. Goals are historically scarce in this fixture.
In the last 10 competitive meetings: Roma 4W, Lazio 3W, 3 Draws. Roma hold a slight edge at the Olimpico (as the 'home' side). 7 of those 10 meetings went Under 2.5 goals. The average score is 1.2-0.9.