Champions League 2025/26 Semi-Final, 2nd Leg — everything on the line at San Siro
Inter have scored in 14 consecutive UCL home games. Barcelona have scored in 22 of 24 away. Defenses will be tested.
| Market | Inter Win | Draw | Barca Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Full Time | 2.95 | 3.30 | 2.35 |
| Market | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
| Goals | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Market | BTTS Yes | BTTS No | |
| Both Score | 1.65 | 2.20 |
Recent results: W 2-0 vs Torino (A), W 1-0 vs Napoli (H), D 1-1 vs Roma (A), W 3-1 vs AC Milan (H), L 0-1 vs Bayern (A), W 2-1 vs Fiorentina (H)
Recent results: W 3-0 vs Girona (H), W 2-1 vs Real Madrid (A), W 4-1 vs Villarreal (H), L 0-1 vs Betis (A), W 3-2 vs Atletico (H), W 5-0 vs Alaves (A)
| Stat | Inter Milan | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| UCL Goals/Match | 1.82 | 2.45 |
| UCL Goals Conceded/Match | 0.73 | 1.18 |
| Possession Avg (UCL) | 48% | 62% |
| Shots on Target/Match | 5.2 | 6.8 |
| Corners/Match | 5.5 | 6.9 |
| Clean Sheet % (UCL) | 55% | 27% |
| xG Created/Match | 1.85 | 2.40 |
| xG Conceded/Match | 0.95 | 1.40 |
| Competition | Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCL SF 1st Leg | Apr 2026 | Barcelona | 3-2 |
| UCL Group | Nov 2025 | Draw | 1-1 |
| UCL Group | Oct 2025 | Inter | 1-0 |
| Friendy | Aug 2024 | Barcelona | 2-0 |
| UCL Group | Oct 2023 | Inter | 1-0 |
Last 5 meetings: Inter 2W, Barcelona 2W, 1 Draw. Inter's two wins came at home (San Siro). Barcelona scored 3+ goals only once (1st leg).
Inter have scored in 14 consecutive UCL home matches. Barcelona's attacking talent (Yamal, Lewandowski, Raphinha) makes them likely to score. Inter NEED goals to advance, so they won't park the bus.
1.65The 1st leg produced 5 goals. Inter must chase the game if Barcelona score first, opening up space. Over 2.5 has hit in 5 of Inter's last 7 UCL home games and 6 of Barca's last 8 UCL away.
1.80Inter don't lose at San Siro. 6W 1D in UCL home games this season. Even if they don't win, drawing and taking it to extra time is very plausible. The 1X at 1.55 is solid.
1.55UCL semi-finals are high-intensity. The 1st leg had 5 cards. Expect Barcelona's pressing and Inter's tactical fouling to produce 5+ cards again. Over 4.5 cards at 1.72.
1.72Yamal has 4 goals in his last 6 UCL matches. He scored in the 1st leg. Inter's right side is the weaker flank — expect Yamal to drift inside and get chances.
2.80Thuram has 3 UCL goals this season, all at home. His pace on the counter is Inter's main threat against Barcelona's high line. Good value at 3.50.
3.50For UCL semi-final 2nd legs, we recommend 0.75-1.5% of your bankroll per bet (reduced from the standard 1-2% due to higher volatility). Knockout matches can swing on a single moment — red cards, penalties, or VAR decisions. Don't overexpose on one match. Spread your value across 2-3 markets rather than going all-in on one pick.
Barcelona are slight favorites at 2.30-2.45 odds. Inter Milan are at 2.90-3.10 for the home win, with the draw at 3.20-3.40. Barcelona's 1st leg lead and away form give them the edge, but Inter's San Siro record makes this close.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) at 1.65 offers strong value. Inter have scored in 14 consecutive home UCL matches and Barcelona have scored in 22 of their last 24 away games. Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 is also attractive.
Kick-off is at 21:00 CET (20:00 UK time) on Tuesday, April 29, 2026, at San Siro, Milan.
The expected goals (xG) for this match is approximately 2.7-3.0. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.80 and has hit in 5 of Inter's last 7 UCL home games and 6 of Barcelona's last 8 UCL away matches.
Inter have a strong home record in the UCL (won 6 of 7 at San Siro this season). They need goals to have a chance. The San Siro atmosphere in knockout UCL matches is a significant factor — Inter haven't lost a UCL home knockout match since 2023.